Made using the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons of FairSalary data, normalized to the projected 2026-27 salary cap.
The 2026 NBA free-agent class is not a simple ranking of the best players available. It is a cap-context puzzle.
There are stars, but several of them are old. There are young players, but many are restricted. There are big names, but some have player options that are far above their true market value. There are also plenty of players whose box-score production, advanced value, playoff usefulness, age curve, and actual free-agent leverage do not line up cleanly.
That is exactly why I built FairSalary.
FairSalary is not meant to be gospel. It is not meant to replace scouting. It is not meant to say, “this is exactly what the player will sign for.” It is a contender-value baseline. The idea is simple: if I were trying to build a serious playoff team, how much should a player’s season have been worth based on his actual production, advanced impact, usage, efficiency, availability, and role? It is also meant to give fans an indication of how much a player could be worth on the open market.
I am using data from the last two seasons because a single-season number can overreact to role changes, injuries, hot shooting, low-minute samples, or a weird team context. Two seasons gives a better signal.
Cap anchors used in this article
| Season | Salary cap | First apron | Second apron | Status |
| 2024-25 | $140,588,000 | $178,132,000 | $188,931,000 | Final |
| 2025-26 | $154,647,000 | $195,945,000 | $207,824,000 | Final |
| 2026-27 | $165,000,000 | $209,000,000 | $222,000,000 | Projected |
To compare player value across seasons, I am converting both FairSalary outputs into 2026-27 cap dollars.
- 2024-25 to 2026-27 multiplier: 1.174x
- 2025-26 to 2026-27 multiplier: 1.067x
For most players, I am using a weighted two-year signal, basically meaning I am giving more value to last season than to the season before that:
Two-Year FairSalary Signal = 65 percent of 2025-26 normalized FairSalary + 35 percent of 2024-25 normalized FairSalary
I weight 2025-26 more heavily because it is the most recent season, and free agency pays for what teams think a player will be going forward. But the 2024-25 data still matters. It helps separate a real breakout from a one-year spike, and it helps identify players whose 2025-26 number may have been distorted by role, injuries, or small samples.
For older players, I use the two-year FairSalary as a production baseline, then cut the ideal contract because term risk matters. For restricted free agents, I use the two-year number as a baseline, then adjust based on matching rights, age, scarcity, and leverage. For player options and club options, the question is often not “what is this player worth?” but “is the option above or below his market?”
Quick max-salary reference under a $165 million cap
| Max tier | Starting salary |
| 25 percent max | $41.25 million |
| 30 percent max | $49.50 million |
| 35 percent max | $57.75 million |
Approximate max totals
| Max tier | 4-year outside max | 5-year Bird max |
| 25 percent max | About $177 million | About $239 million |
| 30 percent max | About $213 million | About $287 million |
| 35 percent max | About $248 million | About $335 million |
This matters a lot for players like Austin Reaves, Jalen Duren, Trae Young, LeBron James, and James Harden. Sometimes the model says a player’s production was worth more than his legal max. Sometimes the model says a player was worth less than his expected market because the NBA pays for scarcity, creation, and upside.
To give you a quick indication, here is the full salary-expectation table for the most important free agents and option decisions this offseason. I will explain the key names below.
2026 NBA free agency contract value board
| Rank | Player | Ideal AAV | Expected outcome | Best value fit |
| 1 | Austin Reaves | $38M to $41M | 5 years, $190M to $220M | Lakers |
| 2 | Jalen Duren | $37M to $41M | 5 years, $180M to $205M | Pistons |
| 3 | James Harden | $38M to $45M | 2 years, $85M to $95M | Cavaliers |
| 4 | LeBron James | $30M or less if he takes a contender discount | 1+1 year, around $30M annually | Lakers |
| 5 | Isaiah Hartenstein | $28M to $32M | Option or extension | Thunder |
| 6 | Trae Young | $35M to $42M | Opt in | Wizards |
| 7 | Kristaps Porzingis | $24M to $30M | Short protected deal | Warriors |
| 8 | Walker Kessler | $23M to $27M | 4 years, $100M to $120M | Lakers |
| 9 | Mark Williams | $20M to $24M | 4 years, $85M to $100M | Suns |
| 10 | Norman Powell | $18M to $22M | 2 years, $40M to $48M | Heat |
| 11 | Tobias Harris | $16M to $20M | 2 years, $36M to $44M | Pistons |
| 12 | C.J. McCollum | $14M to $18M | 1 year, $18M to $22M | Hawks |
| 13 | Ayo Dosunmu | $14M to $17M | 3 years, $48M to $57M | Timberwolves |
| 14 | Mitchell Robinson | About $15M | 2 years, around $35M | Knicks |
| 15 | Robert Williams III | $10M to $15M | Protected short deal | Contender |
| 16 | Tari Eason | $15M to $20M | 4 years, $65M to $85M | Lakers |
| 17 | Peyton Watson | $14M to $18M | 4 years, $80M to $100M | Nuggets |
| 18 | Bennedict Mathurin | $15M to $18M | 4 years, $80M to $100M | Clippers |
| 19 | Anfernee Simons | $16M to $20M | 3 years, $60M to $75M | Magic |
| 20 | Coby White | $18M to $22M | 4 years, $80M to $96M | Hornets |
| 21 | Collin Sexton | $14M to $18M | 3 years, $45M to $55M | Heat or Magic |
| 22 | John Collins | $12M to $16M | 3 years, $39M to $48M | Bulls or Hornets |
| 23 | Deandre Ayton | $12M to $16M | 2 years, $30M to $36M | Lakers |
| 24 | Luguentz Dort | $10M to $14M | Option or rework | Thunder |
| 25 | Quentin Grimes | $10M to $15M | 3 years, $33M to $45M | Lakers |
| 26 | Dean Wade | $10M to $13M | 2 years, $22M to $28M | Cavaliers |
| 27 | Luke Kennard | $8M to $12M | 2 years, $18M to $24M | Lakers or Spurs |
| 28 | Kevin Huerter | $10M to $14M | 2 years, $22M to $28M | Pistons |
| 29 | Rui Hachimura | $10M to $14M | 2 years, $24M to $32M | Lakers |
| 30 | Nikola Vucevic | $12M to $16M | 1 to 2 years | Celtics |
| 31 | Fred VanVleet | $18M to $24M | Opt in or short rework | Rockets |
| 32 | Jonathan Kuminga | $12M to $16M | Option or rework | Hawks |
| 33 | Sandro Mamukelashvili | $8M to $14M | 2 years, $20M to $28M | Raptors |
| 34 | Neemias Queta | $10M to $15M if UFA | Option | Celtics |
| 35 | Day’Ron Sharpe | $8M to $12M | Option | Nets |
| 36 | Keon Ellis | $6M to $10M | 2 years, $14M to $20M | Cavaliers or Lakers |
| 37 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | $6M to $10M | 1 to 2 years | 76ers |
| 38 | Simone Fontecchio | $7M to $10M | 2 years, $14M to $20M | Heat |
| 39 | Jaxson Hayes | $6M to $10M | 1 to 2 years | Lakers |
| 40 | Zach Collins | $5M to $8M | 1 to 2 years | Bulls |
| 41 | Jock Landale | $5M to $8M | 1 to 2 years | Hawks |
| 42 | Matisse Thybulle | $4M to $7M | 1 year | Blazers or Lakers |
| 43 | Gary Payton II | $4M to $7M | 1 year | Warriors |
| 44 | Jordan Goodwin | $4M to $7M | 1 year | Suns |
| 45 | Collin Gillespie | $6M to $10M | 1 to 2 years | Suns |
| 46 | Marcus Smart | $6M to $10M | Option or short deal | Lakers |
| 47 | Bruce Brown Jr. | $5M to $8M | 1 year | Nuggets or Heat |
| 48 | Harrison Barnes | $8M to $12M | 1 to 2 years | Spurs |
| 49 | Al Horford | $5M to $8M | Option or retirement | Warriors or Celtics |
| 50 | Cam Thomas | $8M to $10M | 1-year prove-it | Bucks or Nets |
| 51 | Kevin Porter Jr. | $8M to $14M | Short prove-it | Bucks or Clippers |
| 52 | Gary Trent Jr. | $4M to $8M | Option or short deal | Bucks |
| 53 | Seth Curry | $4M to $6M | 1 year | Warriors or Hornets |
| 54 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | $5M to $7M | 1 year | Nuggets |
| 55 | Russell Westbrook | Minimum to $4M | 1 year | Kings or Clippers |
| 56 | Kelly Olynyk | Minimum to $4M | 1 year | Spurs |
| 57 | Andre Drummond | $3M to $5M | 1 year | 76ers |
| 58 | Tyus Jones | $4M to $6M | 1 year | Nuggets or Lakers |
| 59 | Kyle Anderson | $4M to $7M | 1 year | Wolves or Spurs |
| 60 | Khris Middleton | $5M to $9M | 1 year | Mavericks or Bucks |
The top of the 2026 market
Austin Reaves, player option, Lakers
2026-27 option context: Player option around $14.9 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-$40 million range
Ideal salary: $38 million to $41 million annually
Expected contract: 5 years, $190 million to $220 million, or 4 years, $155 million to $175 million if shorter
Best fits: Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks, Jazz
Best value fit: Lakers
Reaves is now one of the most important players in this class. The two-year model data is extremely strong. His 2025-26 production already looked like high-end starter value, and the 2024-25 data makes it harder to call it a fluke.
The biggest thing with Reaves is that his game scales. He does not need to be a heliocentric guard. He can play on the ball, off the ball, as a secondary pick-and-roll creator, as a spot-up shooter, and as a late-clock bailout option. That is why the Lakers fit remains so clean next to Luka Doncic, at least offensively.
The concern is defense and role inflation. If Reaves is paid like a clear number two on a title team, he has to be good enough in playoff series where elite teams target him defensively. This is also why a lot of fans do not want him to get a $40 million contract. His defense can be a bit questionable, and his production has dropped in the playoffs for the past few years.
But the updated two-year FairSalary signal is strong enough that I can no longer treat him as just a high-level role player. He is closer to a near-max offensive starter. Someone is definitely going to offer him the max, and I definitely think he deserves that. Though if I am the Lakers, I would like a contract value that is a bit lower than the max AAV. Ideally, I would want to give him either a flat contract or a contract that goes down every year.
This is because the Lakers can, and should, make signing Reaves the last move they make of the offseason. Because Reaves’ cap hold is only around $20 million for the upcoming season, signing Reaves on a structure like that would give the Lakers a bit more flexibility in later seasons. Giving Reaves the full max at $41 million next season and then slightly decreasing it to a flat $37 million for the last four years would probably work well and puts him at around a contract value of five years and $190 million.
My contract line: I would be comfortable with a contract starting around $39 million to $41 million. I would prefer not to go all the way to the full five-year max because of the defensive concerns. Still, letting him walk is an even bigger problem.
- Ideal deal: 5 years, $190 million
- Expected deal: 5 years, $200 million to $220 million
- Walk-away point: The full five-year max can become uncomfortable. However, I would not walk away from Reaves this season. I would still give it to him and give the Luka-Reaves duo one more healthy year to see if it works in the playoffs with a better team built around them. If the same defensive problems show up again, and if Reaves’ production declines again in the playoffs, then trading him later is still an option.
LeBron James, UFA, Lakers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid $50 million range
Ideal salary: $30 million or less if he wants the Lakers to build a real contender, or $50 million-plus if this is a one-year legacy deal
Expected contract: 1+1 year, around $30 million annually
Best fits: Lakers, Warriors, Cavaliers
Best value fit: Lakers if the number leaves room to improve the roster
The two-year model still sees LeBron as a star, and recent reporting around the league still supports that idea. If it were not for his age, he would still be valued closer to a near-max contract. That is wild, but it is also accurate. He still scores efficiently, still passes at a star level, still rebounds, and still controls playoff possessions better than almost anyone.
But the contract conversation is not about whether LeBron can play. He can. It is about how much annual salary and how much roster-building flexibility a team wants to sacrifice for a player entering his age-42 season.
If this is purely a one-year deal, I can still understand a massive salary. A one-year overpay for a player of LeBron’s stature is not a franchise-killing mistake. But if I am the Lakers, the best basketball outcome is obvious: LeBron takes less, Reaves gets paid, and the team uses the remaining flexibility to add a real center and more two-way wings.
My contract line: The model says he is still worth star money. The roster-building reality says the Lakers should try to land somewhere far below his maximum.
- Ideal deal: 1+1 year deal, $30 million or less annually
- Expected deal: 1+1 year deal, around $30 million annually
James Harden, player option, Cavaliers
2026-27 option context: Player option around $42.3 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $58 million to $61 million
Ideal salary: $38 million to $45 million annually, short term
Expected contract: 2 years, $85 million to $95 million
Best fits: Cavaliers
The two-year FairSalary data still loves Harden. His offensive creation is not theoretical. He can still organize an elite offense, generate threes, get downhill enough, manipulate coverages, and carry a heavy passing burden.
But age and term matter. Harden at one year and $45 million is very different from Harden at four years and $180 million. The model can tell me he was worth star money. It cannot tell me his body will hold up for four more years.
Cleveland is the obvious outcome because the roster context points toward continuity. If the Cavaliers traded for him with the expectation of keeping him, this is probably not a real open-market situation.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $86 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $85 million to $95 million
- Walk-away point: Three or more fully guaranteed years at $40 million-plus.
Jalen Duren, RFA, Pistons
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-$60 million range
Ideal salary: $37 million to $41 million annually
Expected contract: 5 years, $180 million to $205 million
Best fits: Pistons, Bulls offer sheet, Nets offer sheet
Best value fit: Pistons
Duren is the biggest restricted free-agent decision in the class.
His two-year FairSalary signal is enormous because the 2025-26 leap was enormous. The 2024-25 data was good, but the 2025-26 data pushed him into a different tier. The model sees elite rebounding, finishing, availability, efficiency, and real star-level regular-season production.
The question is whether that value translates cleanly to playoff basketball at a max or near-max price. Non-shooting centers need to either be elite defensive anchors, elite offensive engines, or so dominant in their role that the lack of shooting does not matter. Duren is closer to that territory now than he was a year ago, but in the playoffs he regressed. I do not want to simply hand him the full 30 percent max without negotiating.
Detroit’s leverage is restricted free agency. Duren’s leverage is that teams with cap room can make the Pistons uncomfortable. The Bulls and Nets are the obvious pressure teams. But if Detroit is serious about building around Cade Cunningham, Duren is too important to lose.
My contract line: The two-year FairSalary signal justifies a massive deal, but the center archetype keeps the ideal number below the full max.
- Ideal deal: 5 years, $185 million
- Expected deal: 5 years, $180 million to $205 million
- Walk-away point: At this point in his career, while he is still young, I do not think there is a real walk-away point. Though at a full max, I would not love it.
Trae Young, player option, Wizards
2026-27 option context: Player option around $49 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Mid-$30 million range
Ideal salary: $35 million to $42 million annually, depending on team context
Expected outcome: Opt in
Best fits: Wizards, Nets
Best value fit: Wizards
Trae is the hardest player in the class to price.
The one-year 2025-26 FairSalary number was lower than his reputation. The two-year signal is better, but it still does not scream no-brainer max. That is because FairSalary is trying to value players through a contender-building lens. Trae’s offensive creation is elite, but the roster-building costs are real. He needs defensive protection. He needs size. He needs a team that can survive his limitations without taking away what makes him special.
The market may not care. Elite creation gets paid. There are not many players who can bend a defense every possession, and Trae can still do that.
The player option is important. At $49 million, he does not need to take a discount. If a long-term near-max deal is not waiting, opting in is the cleanest move. Honestly, this probably is not horrible for the Wizards. He and Anthony Davis seem like a good fit together, and they have some young players on rookie contracts who can outperform their salary. It is definitely worth seeing how this works for a full season.
My contract line: I would pay Trae more than the model because creation scarcity matters, but I would not treat him like a universal max player for every roster.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $160 million to $175 million
- Expected deal: Opt in at $49 million, or 4 years, $180 million to $205 million if a long-term deal materializes
- Walk-away point: A full max.
Isaiah Hartenstein, club option, Thunder
2026-27 option context: Club option around $28.5 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid $30 million range
Ideal salary: $28 million to $32 million annually
Expected outcome: Option picked up or reworked into a longer deal
Best fits: Thunder, Lakers, Hawks, Knicks if Mitchell Robinson leaves
Best value fit: Thunder
Hartenstein is one of my favorite player archetypes in the league. He helps good teams because he does not need touches. He screens, passes, rebounds, defends, plays physically, and connects lineups.
The two-year FairSalary data supports the option number. He is not just a one-year spike. The question is not whether he is worth the money. The question is whether Oklahoma City wants to pay everyone while navigating the second apron.
If the Thunder have to choose between Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, and Kenrich Williams, Hartenstein is the one I prioritize. Dort has defensive value, but Hartenstein is harder to replace.
My contract line: Pick up the option unless the tax bill makes ownership panic. If reworking, I would try to extend him at a slightly lower annual number with more years.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $88 million to $92 million
- Expected outcome: Option picked up or 3-year extension/rework
Kristaps Porzingis, UFA, Warriors
Two-year FairSalary signal: Mid-to-high $20 million range
Ideal salary: $24 million to $30 million annually with injury protection
Expected contract: 2 years, $55 million to $65 million, or 3 years, $75 million to $90 million with protections
Best fits: Warriors, Thunder, Knicks, Lakers, Heat
Best value fit: Warriors on a short deal
Porzingis is a clean example of why FairSalary is only a starting point.
The two-year value is strong. When he plays, he gives a contender exactly what every team wants: rim protection, shooting, size, spacing, and a matchup problem at center or power forward.
But health is a problem. I do not want to pretend the medical risk is not real.
My contract line: I am fine with a high annual number. I am not fine with long, fully guaranteed term.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $58 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $55 million to $65 million, or 3 years, $75 million to $90 million
- Walk-away point: Three fully guaranteed years with no injury protection on a high salary.
The major option decisions
Zach LaVine, player option, Kings
2026-27 option context: Player option around $49 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Far below option value
Ideal salary: $18 million to $24 million annually
Expected outcome: Opt in
Best fits if moved later: Lakers, Heat, Magic, Nets, Bulls
Best value fit: Any team that gets assets attached or gets him at a reduced long-term number
LaVine should opt in. This is not complicated.
The model does not see him as close to a $49 million player. That does not mean he cannot score. He can. It means scoring reputation and contender value are not the same thing.
At $20 million, LaVine can be interesting. At $49 million, he is a contract problem unless the acquiring team is being compensated or using him as part of a larger trade construction.
- Ideal deal if he were a true UFA: 2 years, $45 million
- Expected outcome: Opt in at $49 million
- Value label: Negative-value option, useful player.
Andrew Wiggins, player option, Heat
2026-27 option context: Player option around $30.2 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-teens range
Ideal salary: $16 million to $20 million annually
Expected outcome: Opt in
Best fits if moved later: Heat, Lakers
Best value fit: Heat if used as a role wing, not a featured scorer
Wiggins still has value because athletic wings with defensive size matter. But his option is above where the open market would likely land.
He is still playable. He is still useful. He is not a $30 million free-agent player in this market.
- Ideal deal if he were to opt out: 2 years, $38 million
- Expected outcome: Opt in at $30.2 million
- Value label: Overpaid but useful.
Draymond Green, player option, Warriors
2026-27 option context: Player option around $27.7 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Single digits to low-teens depending on how much credit I give the non-box-score defense
Ideal salary: $8 million to $14 million annually
Expected outcome: Opt in
Best fits if moved later: Lakers, Suns, Cavaliers
Best value fit: Warriors because the system already understands him
Draymond is one of the hardest players for any model to value. FairSalary underrates some of what he does because communication, defensive quarterbacking, and short-roll decision-making are hard to capture.
Even after manually giving him credit for those things, $27.7 million is too high for this version of Draymond.
- Ideal deal if he were a true UFA: 1 year, $10 million to $12 million
- Expected outcome: Opt in at $27.7 million
- Value label: System value, not market value.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, player option, Grizzlies
2026-27 option context: Player option around $21.6 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Well below option value
Ideal salary: $8 million to $12 million annually
Expected outcome: Opt in and potentially a buyout
Best fits if moved later: Lakers as a buyout minimum, Nuggets, Suns, Bucks
Best value fit: Contender at a lower number
KCP’s reputation is better than his current model value. That does not erase the championship equity he has built, but it does mean I would not pay him like a premium starter anymore.
At $10 million, he is interesting. At $21.6 million, he is probably opting in. He could be very interesting for multiple contender-level teams if he was bought out, which could be a possibility.
- Ideal deal if he were a true UFA: 1 year, $10 million
- Expected outcome: Opt in
- Value label: Reputation contract.
Fred VanVleet, player option, Rockets
2026-27 option context: Player option around $25 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Starter-level when healthy and efficient, but age-adjusted
Ideal salary: $18 million to $24 million annually
Expected outcome: Opt in or rework into 2 years, $40 million to $48 million
Best fits: Rockets, Magic
Best value fit: Rockets
VanVleet is still useful because real point guard structure matters. He can organize an offense and stabilize young lineups.
The issue is that he is now in the age range where I do not want long-term guard money, and there is a question mark about his injury. I think after last year he will and should opt in to his contract, unless someone is willing to make a gamble.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $44 million
- Expected outcome: Opt in at $25 million or short rework
- Value label: Good short-term stabilizer.
The restricted center market
This is probably the most important position group in the class. Duren, Walker Kessler, and Mark Williams are all young, restricted, and valuable. They will also be used as leverage by cap-space teams.
Walker Kessler, RFA, Jazz
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-teens to low-$20 million range
Ideal salary: $23 million to $27 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $100 million to $120 million, or 5 years, $125 million to $145 million
Best fits: Jazz, Bulls, Lakers, Hawks, Hornets
Best value fit: Lakers
Kessler is a place where I move above the model. Rim protection gets paid, and it should. He is young, huge, and already has a clear NBA skill that scales to playoff basketball.
FairSalary likes him, but his actual market can justifiably be higher because defensive centers with real size are scarce. Utah should keep him unless the offer sheet becomes ridiculous. Kessler could be the most ideal big for the Lakers, though he would be hard to get.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $108 million
- Expected deal: 4 years, $100 million to $120 million
- Walk-away point: $30 million-plus annually if the offense does not grow.
Mark Williams, RFA, Suns
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $20 million-plus
Ideal salary: $20 million to $24 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $80 million to $100 million
Best fits: Suns, Bulls, Hornets, Lakers, Pelicans
Best value fit: Suns
Williams is not quite as clean as Duren or Kessler, but the profile is still valuable: size, rebounding, vertical finishing, second-chance points, and youth.
For Phoenix, the question is cost. If the number is around $22 million annually, I keep him. If another team pushes toward $28 million or more, the decision becomes harder. He could work well for the Lakers as well, though with the failed trade last season, I do not expect that to happen.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $88 million to $92 million
- Expected deal: 4 years, $85 million to $100 million
- Walk-away point: Near-$30 million annual salary.
Mitchell Robinson, UFA, Knicks
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid $20 million range when healthy
Ideal salary: Around $15 million annually, short term
Expected contract: 2 years, around $35 million
Best fits: Knicks, Lakers, Hawks
Best value fit: Knicks
Robinson’s value is obvious if he is on the floor. He is a possession machine. Offensive rebounding, rim pressure, vertical spacing, and paint defense all matter more in the playoffs than people sometimes admit.
But the health history keeps me from giving him long-term money and higher average annual value.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $35 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $35 million
- Walk-away point: Four guaranteed years.
Robert Williams III, UFA, Trail Blazers
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-teens to mid-$20 million range depending on health weighting
Ideal salary: $10 million to $15 million annually with incentives
Expected contract: 1 year, $12 million to $15 million, or 2 years, $24 million to $30 million with protections
Best fits: Blazers, Lakers, Knicks, Thunder, Pelicans, Bucks
Best value fit: Any contender on a protected short deal
Robert Williams is still one of the best upside bets in the class. When healthy, he is a playoff-level defensive big with vertical athleticism, passing feel, rebounding, and rim protection.
The problem is obvious: availability.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $13 million plus incentives
- Expected deal: 1 year, $12 million to $15 million, or protected two-year deal
- Walk-away point: Fully guaranteed long-term money.
Deandre Ayton, player option, Lakers
2026-27 option context: Player option around $8.1 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid teens
Ideal salary: $12 million to $16 million annually
Expected contract: Opt out, then 2 years, $30 million to $36 million
Best fits: Lakers, Bulls, Hornets, Pelicans, Wizards
Best value fit: Lakers if the number stays moderate
Ayton’s option is low enough that he should test the market. The question is whether teams view him as a real starting center or just a reclamation starter.
I do not want to pay Ayton like a franchise big, but as a play-finisher next to elite creators, he makes sense.
The reason I still put the Lakers as the best fit is that there is a decent chance they are not getting one of the other options. Maybe they can get Robert Williams, but that means you need a third big to compensate for the injuries. Ayton at least has some experience playing with them now, and at the end of the season they looked a lot better together. I do not love Ayton on the Lakers, but they can always try to trade him later in the season.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $25 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $30 million to $36 million
- Walk-away point: $20 million-plus annually with long guaranteed term.
The veteran starter market
C.J. McCollum, UFA, Hawks
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-teens range
Ideal salary: $14 million to $18 million annually
Expected contract: 1 year, $18 million to $22 million, or 2 years, $32 million to $40 million
Best fits: Hawks
Best value fit: Hawks on a short bridge deal
McCollum is still useful because shot creation and shooting age relatively well. He should not be paid like a star, but as a short-term veteran scorer and secondary handler, he still has value.
Atlanta’s roster context makes a short deal logical. He helps them stay competitive without locking them into a long-term aging-guard contract.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $20 million
- Expected deal: 1 year, $18 million to $22 million
- Walk-away point: Three guaranteed years.
Norman Powell, UFA, Heat
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-$20 million range
Ideal salary: $18 million to $22 million annually
Expected contract: 2 years, $40 million to $48 million
Best fits: Heat, Lakers, Suns, Cavaliers, Clippers
Best value fit: Heat
Powell grades well because his scoring is efficient and functional. He is not just a volume guy. He attacks closeouts, shoots, gets to his spots, and can help in playoff half-court offense.
Age limits term, but the annual value is real.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $42 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $40 million to $48 million
- Walk-away point: Three or four years at starter money.
Tobias Harris, UFA, Pistons
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $20 million
Ideal salary: $16 million to $20 million annually
Expected contract: 2 years, $36 million to $44 million
Best fits: Pistons, Hawks, Bulls, 76ers, Lakers
Best value fit: Pistons if short
Tobias is not exciting, but he is still useful. He can play forward minutes, score enough, rebound, and stabilize lineups.
The problem is paying him for what he used to be rather than what he is. Short-term money is fine. Long-term money is not.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $38 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $36 million to $44 million
- Walk-away point: Anything that blocks younger upgrades.
Nikola Vucevic, UFA, Celtics
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-$20 million range
Ideal salary: $12 million to $16 million annually
Expected contract: 1 year, $14 million to $18 million, or 2 years, $28 million to $34 million
Best fits: Celtics, Lakers, Warriors, Suns, Pelicans
The model likes Vucevic’s production more than the playoff market probably will. He still scores, rebounds, passes, and spaces. But older centers with defensive limitations are tricky in playoff basketball.
He can help a regular-season team a lot. I just do not want to depend on him as the defensive backbone of a contender.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $16 million
- Expected deal: 1 year, $15 million to $18 million, or short two-year deal
- Walk-away point: Long-term starter money.
John Collins, UFA, Clippers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid teens
Ideal salary: $12 million to $16 million annually
Expected contract: 3 years, $39 million to $48 million
Best fits: Clippers, Bulls, Hornets, Wizards, Lakers
Best value fit: Bulls or Hornets if used as an athletic frontcourt finisher
Collins still has value as an athletic forward/big who can finish, run, rebound, and occasionally stretch the floor. The key is role clarity.
He is not a defensive anchor, and he is not a primary offensive player. Pay him as a useful frontcourt piece.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $42 million
- Expected deal: 3 years, $39 million to $48 million
- Walk-away point: $18 million-plus annually.
Harrison Barnes, UFA, Spurs
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $9 million to $11 million
Ideal salary: $8 million to $12 million annually
Expected contract: 1 year, $10 million to $12 million, or 2 years, $18 million to $22 million
Best fits: Spurs, Lakers, Warriors, Bucks, Suns
Best value fit: Spurs
Barnes is still a clean veteran forward. He spaces, understands where to be, and does not hijack possessions. That has value next to young stars.
On a team like San Antonio, that kind of veteran stability matters more than it would on a rebuilding team.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $11 million
- Expected deal: 1 to 2 years, $10 million to $22 million total
- Walk-away point: Multi-year deal above $12 million annually.
Jusuf Nurkic, UFA, Jazz
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $10 million to $13 million
Ideal salary: $8 million to $12 million annually
Expected contract: 1 year, $8 million to $12 million
Best fits: Jazz, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Hornets, Mavericks
Best value fit: Backup or bridge-center role
Nurkic is productive, but the league has moved away from paying traditional centers unless they can defend in space or dominate a specific playoff role.
He still has a market. It just should not be a major one.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $10 million
- Expected deal: 1 year, $8 million to $12 million
- Walk-away point: Multi-year starter money.
The scoring-guard market
Anfernee Simons, UFA, Bulls
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-teens
Ideal salary: $16 million to $20 million annually
Expected contract: 3 years, $60 million to $75 million
Best fits: Bulls, Nets, Magic, Grizzlies
Best value fit: Magic if protected defensively
Simons will likely get paid above the model because the NBA pays for shooting and shot creation. That is fair to a point.
The question is whether his defense and playmaking allow him to be worth $25 million-plus on a playoff team. I am not there.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $60 million
- Expected deal: 3 years, $60 million to $75 million
- Walk-away point: Anything above $25 million annually.
Coby White, UFA, Hornets
Two-year FairSalary signal: Mid-teens
Ideal salary: $18 million to $22 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $80 million to $96 million
Best fits: Hornets, Bulls, Nets, Magic
Best value fit: Hornets if he is a secondary guard
White is better than a pure model reading because age and shot creation matter. But I still do not want to pay him like a primary playoff engine.
As a secondary guard, I like him.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $84 million
- Expected deal: 4 years, $80 million to $96 million
- Walk-away point: $25 million-plus annual salary.
Collin Sexton, UFA, Bulls
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid teens
Ideal salary: $14 million to $18 million annually
Expected contract: 3 years, $45 million to $55 million
Best fits: Bulls, Magic, Nets, Grizzlies, Heat
Best value fit: Heat or Magic as a downhill pressure guard
Sexton’s rim pressure and competitiveness matter. I just do not want him as my primary organizer.
In the right role, he can be very useful. In the wrong role, the contract can become frustrating quickly.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $48 million
- Expected deal: 3 years, $45 million to $55 million
- Walk-away point: $20 million annually.
The young wing and upside market
Jonathan Kuminga, club option, Hawks
2026-27 option context: Club option around $24.3 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Mid-single digits to low-teens depending on upside credit
Ideal salary: $12 million to $16 million annually
Expected outcome: Option picked up, or declined/reworked into 3 years, $45 million to $60 million
Best fits: Hawks
I would be a bit shocked if the Hawks let Kuminga walk for nothing after trading for him at the deadline. Kuminga is more upside than current value. He is still only 23 years old and played well for them after they traded for him. The model does not love him at the option number, but I understand why a team would be reluctant to let him go. Athletic forwards with scoring flashes are hard to find. He is a good defender who can score at the rim. If he develops a good shot, he will be a problem in this league.
The best outcome is a reworked deal. The $24.3 million option is too rich for his actual current impact.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $50 million
- Expected outcome: Option or rework decision
- Walk-away point: Long-term contract near the option annual salary.
Tari Eason, RFA, Rockets
Two-year FairSalary signal: Modest in pure model terms, higher after archetype adjustment
Ideal salary: $15 million to $20 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $65 million to $85 million
Best fits: Rockets, Lakers, Bulls, Nets, Thunder
Best value fit: Lakers
Eason is a player I manually push above FairSalary because defensive wings and forwards are extremely valuable. His production does not always look like a huge-money player, but the archetype does.
I think Eason’s season was a bit weird. His three-ball improved, but he regressed in almost everything else. I think a big part of this is the lack of a good point guard option. I think this season was a down year for him. So looking at Tari Eason’s 2024-25 FairSalary numbers is probably a better prediction. In that season he got to a FairSalary number of $17.5 million. Adjusting that for salary cap increase, you get to about $20 million to $22 million. That feels fair for him.
Ideally, you would use the past season to reduce that number a bit to $15 million. But because he is restricted, I can see another team offering him a bit more, like $20 million to $25 million, and the Rockets matching. Maybe they even use a sign-and-trade if they do not love the number. The Lakers specifically could really use someone like Eason, and the playmaking that Luka, Reaves, and LeBron bring could really unlock Eason’s potential.
He rebounds, defends, creates events, runs, and gives a team lineup flexibility. That is playoff-useful.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $72 million or less
- Expected deal: 4 years, $65 million to $85 million
- Walk-away point: $25 million-plus annually unless you really expect the offense to grow.
Peyton Watson, RFA, Nuggets
Two-year FairSalary signal: Modest
Ideal salary: $14 million to $18 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $80 million to $100 million
Best fits: Nuggets, Lakers
Best value fit: Nuggets if they keep him below $22 million annually
Watson is another defensive-upside player who will likely beat his model number. Big wings who can defend are expensive because everyone wants them. Watson is basically the opposite of Eason in terms of situation. Instead of a down year, he had a bit of a breakout season. He is a good defender and a good rebounder for his position. His length makes him versatile and capable of both playing and defending multiple positions.
The risk is offense and health. If he continues as a real shooter, the contract is good. If not, it can get heavy fast. He is still young though, so there is a decent chance he develops further.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $72 million
- Expected deal: 4 years, $80 million to $100 million
- Walk-away point: I think $25 million annually would be my breaking point, although I can see someone offering exactly that.
Bennedict Mathurin, RFA, Clippers
Two-year FairSalary signal: High-single digits to low-teens
Ideal salary: $15 million to $18 million annually
Expected contract: 4 years, $80 million to $100 million
Best fits: Clippers, Nets, Bulls, Jazz
Best value fit: Clippers if below $25 million annually
Mathurin will get paid for age, size, and scoring. That makes sense. But I want to see more complete impact before going too far. He is actually very interesting here. His raw production is great. If we only look at that part of the model, he would be worth around $14 million. His advanced stats and efficiency bring him down a lot. He is still young though, so I expect the Clippers will pay him for his production and upside.
If he defends and moves the ball, he is worth a lot. If he is mostly a scorer, I am more cautious.
- Ideal deal: 4 years, $60 million
- Expected deal: 4 years, $80 million to $100 million
- Walk-away point: $25 million-plus annually.
Quentin Grimes, UFA, 76ers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Around $8 million to $12 million after role adjustment
Ideal salary: $10 million to $15 million annually
Expected contract: 3 years, $33 million to $45 million
Best fits: 76ers, Lakers, Suns, Bucks, Hawks
Best value fit: Lakers
Grimes is more useful than a pure box-score reading. Low-usage guards who can shoot and defend are easy fits.
This is exactly the kind of player contenders should want. The Lakers should really try to get him. He had a bit of a down year from three at only 33.4 percent, but a very big part of that was his pull-ups. He still shot 38.3 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. If the Lakers are lucky, they could try to get him on the room exception, a bit below his value, but that is often how contenders are built.
- Ideal deal: 3 years, $39 million
- Expected deal: 3 years, $33 million to $45 million
- Walk-away point: $16 million-plus annually.
Kelly Oubre Jr., UFA, 76ers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid single digits
Ideal salary: $6 million to $10 million annually
Expected contract: 1 year, $8 million to $10 million, or 2 years, $16 million to $20 million
Best fits: 76ers, Lakers, Suns, Bucks, Heat
Best value fit: 76ers if short
Oubre’s physical tools keep him in the market. The model is skeptical because the shooting, decision-making, and role consistency are not always there. He could be a room exception guy for the Lakers, for example, because he does bring defense and can bring some shooting. Playing next to multiple good playmakers could be a great fit for him. If you can somehow get him for less, like a minimum deal, you have a perfect piece for a contender.
I like him short term on low money. I do not love long-term money unless it is on a big discount.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $9 million or less
- Expected deal: 1 to 2 years, $8 million to $20 million total
- Walk-away point: Three guaranteed years at a high AAV.
Rui Hachimura, UFA, Lakers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid single digits, higher after shooting/size adjustment
Ideal salary: $10 million to $14 million annually
Expected contract: 2 years, $24 million to $32 million
Best fits: Lakers, Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Suns
Best value fit: Lakers if he stays near the MLE range
FairSalary is harsh on Rui, but the market will be kinder because big forwards who can shoot have value, and he has been a proven playoff riser. If you only look at his playoff stats, his ideal salary probably goes up to around $18 million to $20 million annually.
Still, I do not want to pay him like a major starter. He is a good role forward, but there are some things he would need to improve to be worth $20 million or more for a full season. His defense is okay in the right role but not great, and he does not rebound the ball well either.
I do not think the Lakers should let him walk unless they can get someone like Eason or Watson. But I would not love signing him for more than $15 million a year. Still, if that is what it takes, you probably keep him, see if he develops further this season, and if not, you can also try to trade him at the deadline.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $26 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $24 million to $32 million
- Walk-away point: $20 million-plus annually.
The model darlings and low-cost bigs
Neemias Queta, club option, Celtics
2026-27 option context: Club option around $2.7 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Very high
Ideal salary if UFA: $10 million to $15 million annually
Expected outcome: Option picked up
Best fits: Celtics, Knicks, Lakers, Pelicans, Grizzlies
Best value fit: Celtics
Queta is one of the biggest model darlings in the class. The FairSalary number is much higher than his actual market would be, but the signal matters.
He produces. He rebounds. He finishes. He gives real per-minute value. On a cheap club option, this should be automatic.
- Ideal decision: Pick up option immediately
- If UFA: 2 years, $24 million would be interesting
- Value label: Massive surplus option.
Sandro Mamukelashvili, player option, Raptors
Two-year FairSalary signal: High, but sample/role adjusted downward
Ideal salary: $8 million to $14 million annually
Expected contract: 2 years, $20 million to $28 million if he reaches the market
Best fits: Raptors, Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Warriors
Best value fit: Raptors
Sandro continues to pop because skill bigs who can pass, shoot, and keep the ball moving are valuable. I do not take the full FairSalary number literally, but I take the signal seriously.
- Ideal deal: 2 years, $24 million
- Expected deal: 2 years, $20 million to $28 million
- Walk-away point: Paying him like a locked-in starter without proving the role at higher minutes.
Day’Ron Sharpe, club option, Nets
2026-27 option context: Club option around $6.3 million
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid teens
Ideal salary if UFA: $8 million to $12 million annually
Expected outcome: Option picked up
Best fits: Nets, Lakers, Pelicans, Knicks, Bulls
Best value fit: Nets
Sharpe is a productive young backup big. At $6.3 million, this is an easy keep.
- Ideal decision: Pick up option
- If UFA: 2 years, $20 million
- Value label: Strong surplus.
Jaxson Hayes, UFA, Lakers
Two-year FairSalary signal: Low-to-mid teens
Ideal salary: $6 million to $10 million annually
Expected contract: 1 to 2 years, $6 million to $16 million total
Best fits: Lakers, Pelicans, Bulls, Mavericks, Suns
Best value fit: Lakers if cheap
Hayes’ efficiency and vertical spacing make him a model-friendly player. I like him as a backup center or energy big. I do not like him as the only answer at center.
- Ideal deal: 1 year, $6 million or less
- Expected deal: 1 to 2 years, $6 million to $16 million total
- Walk-away point: Paying him like a starting center.
Mid-tier and depth contract board
| Player | Type | Two-year FairSalary signal | Ideal salary | Expected market | Best fits | My read |
| Ayo Dosunmu | UFA | Mid-teens | $14M to $17M | 3 years, $48M to $57M | Wolves, Lakers, Bulls, Bucks | Good two-way guard value |
| Quentin Grimes | UFA | $8M to $12M | $10M to $15M | 3 years, $33M to $45M | 76ers, Lakers, Suns | Market should beat model |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | UFA | Low | $6M to $10M | 1 to 2 years | 76ers, Lakers, Heat | Short-term only |
| Dean Wade | UFA | Low-teens | $10M to $13M | 2 years, $22M to $28M | Cavs, Lakers, Thunder | Quietly useful |
| Luke Kennard | UFA | Specialist value | $8M to $12M | 2 years, $18M to $24M | Lakers, Spurs, Bucks | Shooting premium |
| Kevin Huerter | UFA | $8M to $11M | $10M to $14M | 2 years, $22M to $28M | Pistons, Magic, Lakers | Useful if protected |
| Simone Fontecchio | UFA | $7M to $10M | $7M to $10M | 2 years, $14M to $20M | Heat, Spurs, Bucks | Normal rotation forward |
| Keon Ellis | UFA | Low | $6M to $10M | 2 years, $14M to $20M | Cavs, Lakers, Suns | Defense value |
| Gary Payton II | UFA | High per-minute | $4M to $7M | 1 year, $4M to $7M | Warriors, Lakers | Model darling, age discount |
| Jordan Goodwin | UFA | Strong model signal | $4M to $7M | 1 year, $4M to $8M | Suns, Lakers, Heat | Underrated guard value |
| Collin Gillespie | UFA | Very strong model signal | $6M to $10M | 1 to 2 years | Suns, Nuggets, Magic | Role caution |
| Precious Achiuwa | UFA | $6M to $8M | $5M to $8M | 1 to 2 years | Kings, Knicks, Lakers | Energy big/forward |
| Matisse Thybulle | UFA | Defense value | $4M to $7M | 1 year, $5M to $7M | Blazers, Lakers, Nuggets | Specialist |
| Andre Drummond | UFA | Rebounding value | $3M to $5M | 1 year, $3M to $5M | 76ers, Lakers, Knicks | Specialist |
| Tyus Jones | UFA | Low | $4M to $6M | 1 year, $4M to $7M | Nuggets, Lakers, Spurs | Backup point guard reliability |
| Bruce Brown Jr. | UFA | Low | $5M to $8M | 1 year, $5M to $8M | Nuggets, Lakers, Heat | Reputation bounce-back |
The club-option value board
Some of the best value in this free-agent class is not actual free agency. It is club options. These are the decisions where teams can create surplus without entering the market.
| Player | Option | My decision | Why |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | About $28.5M | Pick up or extend | Worth the number; apron pressure is the only issue |
| Luguentz Dort | About $17M to $18M | Rework if possible | Defense matters, but option is rich |
| Kenrich Williams | About $7.2M | Coin flip | Useful connector, roster crunch matters |
| Jonathan Kuminga | About $24.3M | Rework preferred | Upside is real, current value is below option |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | About $16M | Decline or rework | Age and production make the option difficult |
| Brook Lopez | About $9.2M | Pick if role exists | Fine one-year drop-big price |
| Kevon Looney | About $8M | Decline or rework | Useful, but option looks high |
| Day’Ron Sharpe | About $6.3M | Pick up | Clear surplus value |
| Neemias Queta | About $2.7M | Pick up immediately | One of the best option values |
| Julian Champagnie | About $3M | Pick up | Cheap wing/forward value |
| Craig Porter Jr. | About $2.4M | Pick up | Model likes him |
| Pelle Larsson | About $2.3M | Pick up | Cheap rotation guard/wing |
| Killian Hayes | About $3M | Decline | Passing is real, production is not |
Older veteran and minimum market
These players should mostly be short-term contracts. Some can still help. Some are more name value than production value. Some may be minimum-only players now.
| Player | Ideal salary | Expected market | Best fits | My read |
| Khris Middleton | $5M to $9M | 1 year, $6M to $10M | Mavericks, Bucks, Lakers | Name value exceeds model value |
| Al Horford | $5M to $8M | Option or retirement | Warriors, Celtics, Spurs | Still useful if managed |
| Brook Lopez | $5M to $8M | Option or 1 year | Clippers, Bucks, Lakers | Drop-big specialist |
| Marcus Smart | $6M to $10M | Option or short deal | Lakers, Celtics, Bucks | Model underrates role value |
| Kelly Olynyk | Minimum to $4M | 1 year, $3M to $5M | Spurs, Lakers, Heat | Stretch-big depth |
| D’Angelo Russell | $4M to $7M | Option or 1 year | Wizards, Nets, Magic | Skill remains, fit concern |
| Nicolas Batum | $3M to $6M | Option or minimum-plus | Clippers, Spurs, Warriors | IQ contract |
| Kevin Love | Minimum to $4M | Minimum to $4M | Jazz, Cavs, Heat | Veteran spacing |
| Jeff Green | Minimum | Minimum | Rockets, Nuggets | Veteran presence |
| Doug McDermott | Minimum to $4M | Minimum to $4M | Kings, Spurs, Bucks | Shooting specialist |
| Kyle Lowry | Minimum or retirement | Minimum or retirement | 76ers, Heat, Raptors | Leadership and spot minutes |
| DeAndre Jordan | Minimum | Minimum | Pelicans, Nuggets | Veteran center |
| Jordan Clarkson | Minimum to $5M | Minimum to $5M | Knicks, Jazz, Bucks | Bench scoring only |
| Seth Curry | $4M to $6M | 1 year, $4M to $6M | Warriors, Hornets, Lakers | Shooting only |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | $5M to $7M | 1 year, $5M to $8M | Nuggets, Bucks, Lakers | Bench shooter |
| Russell Westbrook | Minimum to $4M | 1 year, $3M to $6M | Kings, Clippers, Nuggets | Energy guard |
Two-way, non-guaranteed, and fringe NBA group
A lot of the names in the class are not realistic mid-level or standard-market players. They are likely in the two-way, Exhibit 10, non-guaranteed minimum, partial-guarantee, G League, or overseas range.
The players I would still monitor because there is at least one NBA skill or developmental reason:
- Quinten Post, stretch-big path.
- Branden Carlson, shooting big.
- Olivier Sarr, stretch-size depth.
- Oscar Tshiebwe, elite rebounding skill.
- Rayan Rupert, tools wing.
- Jalen Wilson, wing depth if the shot holds.
- Keshad Johnson, energy forward.
- Jaylen Clark, defense-first prospect.
- Kevin McCullar Jr., defensive wing if healthy.
- Antonio Reeves, shooting and scoring guard.
- Koby Brea, shooting gives him a path.
- Chucky Hepburn, defensive guard profile.
- Yuki Kawamura, unique guard skill, size question.
- Drew Timme, skilled big, defensive translation question.
- Hunter Dickinson, productive big, defensive translation question.
- TyTy Washington Jr., former prospect point guard.
- Sharife Cooper, small creator, efficiency and defense questions.
- Mac McClung, athletic scoring guard, fringe NBA role.
- A.J. Lawson, athletic wing.
- Charles Bassey, productive when healthy.
- Christian Koloko, health and availability determine everything.
- Colin Castleton, skilled big depth.
- E.J. Liddell, forward flier.
- Dillon Jones, strong wing/forward profile.
- Harrison Ingram, forward skill flier.
- David Jones-Garcia, scoring wing flier.
- Leaky Black, defensive wing.
- Trey Jemison, center depth.
- Jalen Slawson, forward depth.
- Norchad Omier, productive forward, size and role question.
- Trey Alexander, guard depth.
- K.J. Simpson, small guard creation.
- Isaiah Stevens, passing guard.
- Elijah Harkless, defensive guard/wing flier.
For most of this group, the expected value is not a real salary debate. The likely outcomes are:
- Two-way contract
- Exhibit 10
- Non-guaranteed minimum
- Partial guarantee
- Camp battle for the 14th or 15th roster spot
Best landing spots by team need
Lakers: Reaves, center, two-way wings, and flexibility
The Lakers are the most important team in the class because their plan changes depending on LeBron.
If LeBron comes back at a big number, the Lakers are mostly a continuity, trade, and exceptions team. If he leaves or takes a major discount, they become a real cap-space threat.
Their needs are obvious:
- Re-sign Austin Reaves.
- Add a real center.
- Add defensive wings.
- Add shooting.
- Avoid becoming too one-dimensional around Luka.
Best targets: Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams, Tari Eason, Peyton Watson, Luguentz Dort, Keon Ellis, Luke Kennard, Kevin Huerter, Landry Shamet, Dean Wade, Simone Fontecchio, Rui Hachimura.
Best value plan: Pay Reaves, get LeBron at a discount if he returns, add one center, and prioritize two-way wings over one-way scorers.
Bulls: cap-space leverage
Chicago’s biggest weapon is cap space. That makes the Bulls dangerous even if they do not actually land the biggest restricted free agents.
They can pressure Detroit on Duren. They can pressure Utah on Kessler. They can pressure Phoenix on Mark Williams. They can also overpay a young wing if they want to accelerate.
Best targets: Jalen Duren, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Tari Eason, Peyton Watson, Jonathan Kuminga, John Collins, Anfernee Simons, Coby White, Collin Sexton.
Best value plan: Use cap space to force decisions, but do not spend just to spend. The Bulls should weaponize room, not burn it.
Nets: flexibility, patience, and optional aggression
Brooklyn can go in multiple directions. The Nets can chase a real player, take on money for assets, or pressure restricted free agents.
The worst outcome would be using cap space on good-not-great long-term contracts that do not change the direction of the franchise.
Best targets: Austin Reaves, Trae Young, Jalen Duren, Mark Williams, Walker Kessler, Jonathan Kuminga, Tari Eason, Peyton Watson.
Best value plan: Either get a real long-term piece or use space to collect assets.
Pistons: keep Duren, add shooting, avoid panic
Detroit’s biggest decision is Duren. After that, it is about preserving the breakthrough while improving the playoff offense.
Best targets: Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris, Kevin Huerter, Luke Kennard, Simone Fontecchio, Dean Wade, Ayo Dosunmu, Quentin Grimes.
Best value plan: Keep Duren below the full max if possible, add shooting, and do not overreact to playoff disappointment.
Hawks: McCollum, Kuminga, and the center question
Atlanta has multiple decision points. C.J. McCollum is the veteran bridge. Jonathan Kuminga is the upside swing. The center spot is the cleanest place to upgrade.
Best targets: C.J. McCollum, Jonathan Kuminga, Isaiah Hartenstein, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams, Dean Wade, Simone Fontecchio.
Best value plan: Do not pay McCollum and Kuminga like core stars. Keep optionality and fix the frontcourt balance.
Thunder: Hartenstein is the priority
Oklahoma City has to make real apron decisions. Hartenstein, Dort, and Kenrich Williams all matter, but Hartenstein is the cleanest value.
Best decisions: Pick up or extend Isaiah Hartenstein. Try to rework Luguentz Dort. Replace Kenrich Williams cheaper if necessary. If Hartenstein leaves, consider Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson, or a trade.
Best value plan: Keep the center and trim elsewhere if needed.
Knicks: do not overcomplicate a Finals-level roster
The Knicks have real continuity decisions. Mitchell Robinson and Landry Shamet are the key names here.
Best targets: Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet, backup shooting, minimum veterans who can survive playoff minutes.
Best value plan: Keep Robinson on a short deal and do not break the structure unless a clear upgrade appears.
Spurs: the rebuild is over
San Antonio’s timeline has accelerated. That changes the meaning of every veteran contract.
The Spurs do not need random usage. They need shooting, size, and players who can survive late-game playoff possessions around Victor Wembanyama.
Best targets: Harrison Barnes, Luke Kennard, Simone Fontecchio, Dean Wade, Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Ayo Dosunmu if affordable.
Best value plan: Add shooting and veteran IQ, not ball-dominant scorers.
My favorite value contracts
- Austin Reaves below the full max. The two-year data makes him look like a near-max player. If the Lakers get him below the full five-year max, that can still be a value.
- Isaiah Hartenstein at or below $30 million. He helps good teams in ways that scale. I trust this archetype.
- Ayo Dosunmu around $16 million to $17 million. This is exactly the kind of two-way guard contract I like.
- Dean Wade around $11 million to $12 million. Not exciting, but useful playoff teams need these contracts.
- Quentin Grimes around $12 million to $14 million. The model is not huge, but the role is easy to trust.
- Day’Ron Sharpe on the club option. Easy surplus.
- Neemias Queta on the club option. Even if the model is too high, the option is way too cheap.
- Robert Williams on a protected short deal. If the medicals are good, this is one of the best upside bets in the class.
- Keon Ellis below $10 million. Defense and low-usage fit are undervalued.
- Sandro Mamukelashvili below $14 million. The model loves him, and I understand why.
Biggest overpay risks
- Zach LaVine at $49 million. The opt-in makes sense for him. It is not a value contract.
- Draymond Green at $27.7 million. Still useful, but the number is heavy.
- KCP at $21.6 million. The resume is better than the current model profile.
- Coby White above $25 million annually. Good player, but I do not want to pay him like a primary playoff engine.
- Anfernee Simons above $25 million annually. Shot-making is valuable. One-way scoring guards are dangerous.
- Jonathan Kuminga at long-term option-level money. The upside is real. The current production is not there yet.
- Cam Thomas on a long-term deal. I want the prove-it version, not the four-year bet.
- Older veterans on name-value deals. Middleton, Lowry, Ingles, Jeff Green, DeAndre Jordan, Batum, and similar players should be short-term, role-specific contracts.
Final thoughts
The two-year data sharpened the board.
The biggest winner is Austin Reaves. His case is stronger now than it was with only one year of data. He looks like a near-max player by FairSalary, and the Lakers should treat him as a core piece unless the number reaches the full max and destroys the rest of the roster plan.
Jalen Duren also looks like a monster, but his contract has to account for center market reality and playoff translation. The model loves him. I do too. I just do not want to blindly pay every non-shooting center like a top-tier superstar.
LeBron and Harden still grade like stars, but the correct contracts are short. They are annual-value players, not long-term bets.
Trae Young looks better with two years of data than he did with one, but he remains roster-dependent. He is worth more to a team built around his strengths than he is to a generic contender trying to plug him in.
The biggest value pockets remain the same:
- Cheap club-option bigs.
- Two-way guards and wings.
- Defensive forwards whose value is bigger than their box score.
- Short-term veteran deals.
- Injury-risk bigs with protected contracts.
The biggest traps are also the same:
- Expensive player options.
- One-way scoring guards.
- Older names getting paid for reputation.
- Long-term money for players whose playoff roles are not secure.
FairSalary is not perfect. No stat is. But with two years of data, the signal is cleaner.
The teams that win 2026 free agency will not be the teams that simply spend the most. They will be the teams that understand the difference between production value, market value, and contender value.
That is the whole point of this exercise.
Not every good player is a good contract.
